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An Analysis on 2019 Exit-Polls- Predicting a Comfortable Win for NDA - May 22, 2019

The Marathon Election spreading seven long phases of the world’s largest democracy is finally over and all eyes are on the 23rd of May when the final verdict will be revealed. While BJP is hoping for a comfortable second tenure, the Congress fight appears to be for an honourable comeback. The prospects of Mahagathbandhan to reach Delhi appears to be slim, but they are certainly hoping to be the king-makers, if not the King themselves. To add to the anxiety, the different Exit Polls have forecasted their results and it is not very inspiring the opposition’s prospects.

The Exit Poll, though in different predictions with differing number, forecasted a renewal of Narendra Modi’s tenure as Prime Minister. While almost all of them predicted that NDA will comfortably form the government, few predicted a better performance of BJP and also of NDA than the 2014 Elections. For instance Exit polls by Today’s Chanakya and India Today-Axis My India predicted 350 seats and above for the NDA and fewer than 100 for the UPA. Poll forecasting done by News18-IPSOS also predicted a comfortable victory for the NDA, with 336 seats, while the Congress-led UPA is likely to lag behind with just 82. Few others were relatively sceptical of such a sweeping performance by NDA, but nonetheless predicted a comfortable government for NDA. Take for instance the exit-poll conducted by Times Now-VMR predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will get 306 seats, while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance will get 132. Similarly, the one conducted by Republic TV-C Voter predicted that the NDA will get 287 seats – 236 of them for the BJP. The UPA is expected to get 128 seats. Even if it is difficult to rely entirely on the Exit Poll predictions, considering the fact that they proved repeatedly incapable of predicting correctly the election outcome, their utility cannot be entirely ignored. Firstly, Exit Poll suggest the general trend and mood of the nation. It also is good indicator of the issues that were relevant for the people in their decision to vote. And therefore, if the recent Exit Poll are anything to go by, BJP is comfortably home with a stable renewal of tenure. While the actual results would be out only on 23rd, exit polls have, at least temporarily provided a breather to the incumbent government.

- Prof. Akshay Ranade

**Disclaimer: The views presented are on the basis of overall studies by the Author and not subscribed to by MIT School of Government or by MIT-World Peace University. The discussions are held with Students to encourage active participation in the democratic process of our Nation.